Investing Talks
Name: Paulo Monteiro Rosa
Age: 52
Country of birth: Angola
City of residence: Porto
Biographical note:
He has a degree in economics from the Faculty of Economics of the University of Porto and also attended the financial analyst course at IESF in 2000.
Since January 2020, she has been responsible for the newly created information production team of Banco Carregosa's Investment Department, with the main tasks of preparing the daily "Newsletter", "Weekly Newsletter" and "Quarterly Outlook" newsletters, as well as responding to most of the requests from the media in the economic and financial markets area.
Paulo Monteiro Rosa started in the world of financial markets in 1996 as a freelancer and technical analyst. In 1999 he worked at Lisconsult, part of the Melo Group, where he was an auditor.
In 2001 he opened the financial branch of Central Banco de Investimentos in Vila Real, where he was responsible for three years.
In 2004, he opened a branch of the brokerage firm L.J. Carregosa in Vila Real. Between 2001 and 2004 he was an internship supervisor on the economics course at the University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro (UTAD).
In January 2006 he was invited to join the team of traders at Banco Carregosa's trading room in Porto, where he worked as a Senior Trader for around 15 years, increasing his participation in the media and writing economic and financial articles.
Over the course of his professional career he has written several hundred economic and financial articles published in a wide range of leading Portuguese media: Vida Económica; Jornal de Negócios; Jornal Económico; Dinheiro Vivo; Jornal Público; A Voz-de-Trás-os-Montes; and Funds People.
He also regularly contributes technical (economic and financial) opinion articles to prestigious publications such as the Ordem dos Economistas, the Luso-American Chamber of Commerce, the Mises Portugal Institute and ATM / Analistas Mercados Capitais. He also collaborated with Rádio Antena Minho, Rádio Fundação and Rádio Universidade with various daily articles related to the day's balance of the national and world stock markets.
Since 2013, he has been writing a weekly article in Vida Económica.
Since 2018, he has been writing the fortnightly "review of the week" in Jornal Económico.
He is the author of the book "From the Great Recession to the War in Ukraine", a compilation of some of his articles written and published in the press from the end of 2009 to the beginning of 2024, highlighting economic developments and the course of the financial markets over the last 15 years.
Since 2023 he has been a lecturer at ISLA Gaia on the postgraduate course "Business Management Applied to Micro and Small Companies".
Finally, since 2010, he has been the author of the blog "Omnia Economicus".
Let's start our conversation by learning a little more about Paulo Monteiro Rosa's history and career: childhood, youth, first steps in his professional career, first dreams...
Childhood and youth/adolescence in Vila Real. Financial markets, a few years later he opened his own business in Vila Real, in 2001, a representation of Central Banco de Investimento, a partnership for three years.
Focusing on the property sector, with the fall in interest rates, how do you assess the impact on access to credit for buying property?
The fall in interest rates in Portugal tends to facilitate access to credit for buying property, boosting demand and encouraging the property market to appreciate. However, there are associated risks, such as the possibility of excessive indebtedness and the impact on affordability, especially for first-time buyers with more modest incomes. To avoid imbalances, it is essential to monitor household debt levels.
"Despite the challenges posed by the global economic context, real estate remains an attractive option due to its stability, ability to generate income and protection against inflation, remaining one of the preferred choices for diversification and wealth preservation in times of crisis."
What strategies are property investors adopting to mitigate the effects of rising financing costs?
Investors in the Portuguese property sector have curiously adopted creative strategies to mitigate the effects of rising financing costs in recent years, focusing on diversification, rehabilitation, reducing dependence on credit and exploiting tax incentives. These strategies help preserve profit margins and maintain competitiveness in the market, even in a context of more expensive financing.
How do you see the relationship between the European Central Bank's monetary policy and the Portuguese property market? What financial adjustments could be made to stimulate recovery or growth?
The European Central Bank's monetary policy has a direct impact on the Portuguese property market, above all through the evolution of Euribor rates, which make mortgage loans more expensive or cheaper, reducing or increasing families' purchasing capacity and greater or lesser access to finance. In the last two years, the energetically restrictive policy dictated by high inflation has affected some of the dynamics of the Portuguese property market, but in recent months the ECB has reversed its stance, as inflation slows down, and has adopted an expansionist monetary policy, marked by a gradual reduction in interest rates, but the favourable effects have not yet fully reached Portuguese budgets, having to wait for their instalment to be reviewed, which depends on whether it is a 3, 6 or 12 month Euribor rate.
This scenario of still high interest rates reduces demand, puts pressure on property prices and reduces the attractiveness of new investments. To mitigate these effects and stimulate growth, it is essential to adopt measures such as refinancing loans for the most vulnerable families, tax incentives for affordable housing and urban rehabilitation, and promoting renting as a housing alternative. The use of European funds to support sustainable housing projects and public-private partnerships can also help balance the market. A more gradual adjustment of the ECB's monetary policy, combined with national strategies, can guarantee the sector's recovery. performances of recent years, and foster sustainable and inclusive growth.
The property market, being sensitive to credit policies, is adjusting to new forms of financing, such as partnerships with investment funds. What opportunities or risks do you identify in these collaborations?
Partnerships between the property market and investment funds offer opportunities to expand the supply of capital, make sustainable projects viable and attract foreign investment. However, these benefits can come with risks of dependency, rising prices and market mismatches. A balance between regulation, project diversification and a focus on local needs will be essential if these collaborations are to boost the property sector sustainably in Portugal.
Foreign investment continues to be an important pillar in the property sector. How are financial regulation and the evolution of tax policies in Portugal shaping this flow of capital?
The evolution of fiscal and financial policies in Portugal is shaping the flow of foreign capital into the property sector, with a significant impact on the areas of investment and market attractiveness. While changes to Golden Visas and taxation create challenges, regimes such as Non-Habitual Resident (NHR) and the appreciation of the euro against currencies of emerging or frontier economies continue to offer opportunities. Future success will depend on balanced policies that promote sustainable investment, guarantee predictability and meet the needs of the local economy.
Are recent adjustments to incentive programmes such as the Golden Visa impacting investors? How might regulatory changes in the financial sector affect the future of property investment?
Adjustments to incentive programmes, such as the Golden Visa, and regulatory changes in the financial sector are reshaping the property investment landscape in Portugal. Despite challenges such as higher financing costs over the last two years and tax changes, there are opportunities in segments such as urban rehabilitation, rental and sustainability. Regulatory stability and sector diversification will be essential to attract and retain investors, keeping Portugal an attractive destination in the global market.
How are ESG criteria (environmental, social and governance) shaping both property financing and investment decisions? Are there clear financial incentives for those who adopt more sustainable practices in the property sector?
ESG criteria are profoundly shaping financing and investment decisions in the property sector, creating strong pressure to adopt sustainable and responsible practices. Banks offer clear financial incentives, such as more attractive interest rates, Green Bonds and tax benefits, for ESG-aligned projects. Despite challenges such as higher initial costs and complex regulations, the long-term benefits - such as greater appreciation and attractiveness - make these practices increasingly crucial to success in the sector.
Is the increase in demand for green buildings changing the dynamics of financing new projects? What are the financial benefits of investing in sustainable projects?
Increased demand for green buildings is redefining real estate financing, with banks, investors and governments prioritising projects aligned with ESG criteria. The financial benefits include access to more favourable financing conditions, reduced operating costs, higher property valuations and eligibility for subsidies and tax incentives. Although there are challenges, such as higher initial costs, the superior returns and protection against regulatory risks make sustainable projects a strategic choice in the property sector.
With the growing influence of fintechs in the financial sector, how do you see the impact of these innovations on the financing of property projects? Do you think that property crowdfunding platforms or other digital solutions are gaining traction?
The fintechs are revolutionising real estate financing, offering alternatives such as crowdfundingtokenisation and loans peer-to-peer which democratise access to the sector and increase the speed with which projects can be financed. O crowdfunding Real estate, in particular, is gaining momentum, attracting small investors and offering new sources of capital for developers. Despite challenges such as regulatory risks and limited scalability, these innovations are creating a more inclusive and dynamic market, with clear benefits such as reduced costs, transparency and access to new investment opportunities. As technology and regulation evolve, the fintechs should be consolidated as a pillar in property financing.
How can emerging technologies such as blockchain transform the way real estate assets are transacted and financed?
O blockchain could gradually transform the real estate sector by enabling the tokenisation of assets, the automation of transactions through smart contracts and the creation of decentralised registries. These innovations should increase transparency, reduce costs and democratise access to the market. Despite the regulatory and technical challenges, the financial and operational benefits are likely to make the real estate sector the most competitive in the world. blockchain an inevitable trend for the future of property financing and transactions.
Is the current macroeconomic scenario, with high inflation and uncertainty in the markets, affecting the stability of the property market? Has the financial sector been a support or a barrier to recovery?
The current macroeconomic scenario is challenging the stability of the property market, mainly due to high inflation and rising interest rates, which make financing more expensive and reduce accessibility. The financial sector has been both a support, by offering innovative solutions and sustainable financing, and a barrier, due to restrictions and higher credit costs. However, strategies such as focusing on the rental market, urban rehabilitation and sustainable projects are helping the real estate market to adapt, while attracting foreign capital and digitalisation offer opportunities to overcome the challenges. In addition, the gradual decline in interest rates will also be a possible support for the property market.
In times of economic crisis, property is often seen as a safe haven for investors. Do you think this trend will continue, even with the global financial challenges?
Despite the challenges posed by the global economic context, real estate remains an attractive option due to its stability, ability to generate income and protection against inflation, making it one of the preferred choices for diversification and wealth preservation in times of crisis.
Would you like to leave a message for the stakeholders in the property sector who are with us at the Investing Talks at Invest 351?
Over the years, the property sector has demonstrated its resilience as a secure and strategic pillar in times of change and uncertainty. In the current economic climate, despite significant challenges such as still high interest rates, high inflation over the last two years and the transition to more sustainable practices. However, these circumstances also represent unique opportunities for those willing to innovate and adapt.
For investors, developers and asset managers, this is the time to think strategically, focusing on resilient segments such as long-term rentals, urban regeneration and sustainable projects, which are in line with market demands and global sustainability priorities.
Investing Talks must believe that it is through dialogue, collaboration and the sharing of knowledge that it can overcome the challenges and exploit the countless opportunities that this sector continues to offer.
